Gastrointestinal carcinoid: epidemiological and survival evidence from a large population-based study (n = 25 531).

BACKGROUND Owing to its rarity, the published evidence on gastrointestinal (GI) carcinoid is often based on small series of patients or population-based studies regarding all neuroendocrine tumors. Here, we present a comprehensive epidemiological and survival analysis of the largest cohort of patients with GI carcinoid ever reported. PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients with histological diagnosis of GI carcinoid (n = 25 531) were identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology End Results (SEER) database (including 18 USA cancer registries and spanning the 1973-2009 time frame). Demographic and disease data were used for epidemiological and survival analyses. RESULTS The incidence of GI carcinoid is steadily increasing over the past three decades at a rate higher than any other cancer [annual percentage change (APC) = 4.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.0-4.8]. These patients have a higher risk of further primary tumor (standardized incidence ratio, SIR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.10-1.21), but also a reduced risk of skin melanoma (SIR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.41-0.95). Despite the overall favorable prognosis (5-year disease-specific and relative survival rate: 91.3% and 87.4%, respectively), the mortality rate is increasing over time (APC = 3.5, 95% CI 3.0-4.0) and the 5-year survival rate of patients dying of GI carcinoid (28.5%), though better than that reported for GI cancers in general (8.4%), cannot be considered satisfactory. Finally, a nomogram is provided to predict patient survival on the basis of clinico-pathological factors independently associated with prognosis at multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS These findings can be clinically useful for the management of patients with GI carcinoid and eagerly prompt the continuous effort to develop more effective therapeutic strategies against this slow-growing but chemoresistant tumor.